Update: 5 minutes after I posted this the markets went to exact toss-up … oh well, so much for thinking about binary outcomes as important today!

Germany 51% is playing Brazil 49% in the first semi-final game. The fundamental models that cannot account for injuries, like FiveThiryEight are going to give Brazil the edge (FiveThirtyEight is at 73% for Brazil). This is too high for two reasons. First, it does not account for two of Brazil’s stars missing the game. Second, it over accounts for Brazil’s home-field advantage. It assumes that Brazil is getting the typical home-field advantage for a World Cup game. But, this is the semi-finals and there will not be as much concern over Brazil getting eliminated (the World Cup would be disaster if Brazil got knocked out in the group stage, but will be fine if they got knocked out in the semi-finals). And, Brazil’s home-field calls are what made their quarter-final game chaos, if FIFA is smart they will make the referees call Brazil more fairly.

I generally do not put too much emphasis on the binary outcome, because there is no statically significance difference between 51% and 49%. But, the punters on Betfair have been incredibly consistent on keeping Germany on the winning side, so PredictWise will too.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.